One more political post for today
Obama haters skip this post - too many big words and ideas that can't be reduced to a 3 second soundbite. Here, I'll save you the trouble: Barack Hussein Obama is an elitist, presumptuous, arrogant, empty-suited, street-hustling Black Muslim, Messiah-type who faked his birth certificate while snorting coke and getting a ********. Did I miss any of the basic lies and smears? Hope that covers it for the haters and fools out there.
Are they gone, now? Good. For those of you of the sentient persuasion, I have seen this movie work three times now under the Bush/Atwater/Rove gang: Dukakis in 1988, Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. It failed against Clinton in 1992 because Bush 1 was almost as unpopular as Bush 2 is and there was a credible 3rd party candidate to siphon votes from those who hated Bush but couldn't pull the lever for Clinton. It is CRUCIAL to remember that the "liberal" media have once again, as they did in 88, 2000 and 2004, immediately jumped on and slavishly amplified the McCain attack of the day, from presumptuous to vacuous to race card. MORE coverage does not equate to better coverage, as the survey showing far more negative coverage of OBama than McCain in the past 2 months confirms. Of course, conditions on the ground look a lot more like 1992 or 1980 - a massively unpopular incumbent and a very appealing but different and "risky" challenger.
Other different elements:
1) Clinton has already bloodied Obama up with many of the themes the Mcshames are now using whereas the GOP was lying in wait in 1988, 2000 and 2004.
2) Obama is a better, more naturally appealing candidate than any of Bush 1 and 2, Dole, Kerry, Dukakis or Gore. Only Clinton (Bill) rivaled his natural appeal.
3) McCain is an utterly past his prime pol, who comes across as increasingly short-tempered and confused, and has also severely diminished his "straight talk express" brand and replaced it with the "sour grapes" express "low road" express or "early onset" express take your pick.
4) Obama has major appeal to two underrepresented groups of voters, Af-Ams and youth. If the primaries are any indication, they will turn out in record numbers for Obama, and, like in the primaries, the wise heads will pooh pooh the turnout until it happens.
5) For the first time ever, the Dems have money parity with the GOP, allowing Obama to compete in far more states.
6) The Obama crew has more effective and larger groups of paid and volunteer staff in every state.
7) By EVERY poll, Obama voters are far more enthusiastic than are McCain voters. Even on this board, the GOPPERS are virulently anti-Obama, not pro-McCain. In EVERY presidential election since 1932, the candidate with more enthusiastic voters has won.
8) The conventions are back to back, so there is little opportunity for the kind of unchallenged month-long savaging that Kerry endured (utterly ineptly, I might add).
9) Obama is no dummy and is well aware of the vile shenanigans which have been and will be pulled by the McCain campaign, aided and abetted by the corporate media and the right wing echo chamber.
10) Despite Obama's media-created "problem with Latinos", he has more support against McCain among Latinos than any Dem has ever had against a GOPPER, and this could make a crucial difference in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and yes, even Texas.
11) While there is no Perot running, both Barr and Nader are mounting national campaigns, and EVERY poll has shown Obama's lead increases by 5-7 points with these two on the ballot. Georgia, Alaska and Nevada are three states where this may be of importance.
12) The nastier and more negative McCain gets, the more it turns off Independent voters who were drawn to his promise of a clean and honorable campaign. I think this may be a zero-sum game.
So with all of this, am I confident of Obama winning? Yes, but... There is an ugly underbelly of racism and fear of the other that the McCain camp is exploiting, however hamhandedly and ineptly. Estimates are that Obama's name and racial background take about 15 points from him in the polls, so that what would be a landslide if he were a white guy named Barry O'Brien has been made much much closer. I do think McCain's best pick is Sarah Palin, since some Hillary voters are looking for a reason to vote for McCain as they continue their irrational hate for Obama. Sure, it would hurt him with evangelicals, but he's not going to ever get them to love him anyway. Still, the electoral map is very favorable to Obama, and I do believe he and his crew are smart enough to defeat the right wing-generated and corporate media amplified hate and demonization. I would say 60% 300 vote Obama EV win, 25% Obama electoral landslide, 10% 2000 style nailbiter that Obama wins, and 5% McCain EV squeaker/supreme court selected win.a post for those of the sentient persuasion
Are they gone, now? Good. For those of you of the sentient persuasion, I have seen this movie work three times now under the Bush/Atwater/Rove gang: Dukakis in 1988, Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. It failed against Clinton in 1992 because Bush 1 was almost as unpopular as Bush 2 is and there was a credible 3rd party candidate to siphon votes from those who hated Bush but couldn't pull the lever for Clinton. It is CRUCIAL to remember that the "liberal" media have once again, as they did in 88, 2000 and 2004, immediately jumped on and slavishly amplified the McCain attack of the day, from presumptuous to vacuous to race card. MORE coverage does not equate to better coverage, as the survey showing far more negative coverage of OBama than McCain in the past 2 months confirms. Of course, conditions on the ground look a lot more like 1992 or 1980 - a massively unpopular incumbent and a very appealing but different and "risky" challenger.
Other different elements:
1) Clinton has already bloodied Obama up with many of the themes the Mcshames are now using whereas the GOP was lying in wait in 1988, 2000 and 2004.
2) Obama is a better, more naturally appealing candidate than any of Bush 1 and 2, Dole, Kerry, Dukakis or Gore. Only Clinton (Bill) rivaled his natural appeal.
3) McCain is an utterly past his prime pol, who comes across as increasingly short-tempered and confused, and has also severely diminished his "straight talk express" brand and replaced it with the "sour grapes" express "low road" express or "early onset" express take your pick.
4) Obama has major appeal to two underrepresented groups of voters, Af-Ams and youth. If the primaries are any indication, they will turn out in record numbers for Obama, and, like in the primaries, the wise heads will pooh pooh the turnout until it happens.
5) For the first time ever, the Dems have money parity with the GOP, allowing Obama to compete in far more states.
6) The Obama crew has more effective and larger groups of paid and volunteer staff in every state.
7) By EVERY poll, Obama voters are far more enthusiastic than are McCain voters. Even on this board, the GOPPERS are virulently anti-Obama, not pro-McCain. In EVERY presidential election since 1932, the candidate with more enthusiastic voters has won.
8) The conventions are back to back, so there is little opportunity for the kind of unchallenged month-long savaging that Kerry endured (utterly ineptly, I might add).
9) Obama is no dummy and is well aware of the vile shenanigans which have been and will be pulled by the McCain campaign, aided and abetted by the corporate media and the right wing echo chamber.
10) Despite Obama's media-created "problem with Latinos", he has more support against McCain among Latinos than any Dem has ever had against a GOPPER, and this could make a crucial difference in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and yes, even Texas.
11) While there is no Perot running, both Barr and Nader are mounting national campaigns, and EVERY poll has shown Obama's lead increases by 5-7 points with these two on the ballot. Georgia, Alaska and Nevada are three states where this may be of importance.
12) The nastier and more negative McCain gets, the more it turns off Independent voters who were drawn to his promise of a clean and honorable campaign. I think this may be a zero-sum game.
So with all of this, am I confident of Obama winning? Yes, but... There is an ugly underbelly of racism and fear of the other that the McCain camp is exploiting, however hamhandedly and ineptly. Estimates are that Obama's name and racial background take about 15 points from him in the polls, so that what would be a landslide if he were a white guy named Barry O'Brien has been made much much closer. I do think McCain's best pick is Sarah Palin, since some Hillary voters are looking for a reason to vote for McCain as they continue their irrational hate for Obama. Sure, it would hurt him with evangelicals, but he's not going to ever get them to love him anyway. Still, the electoral map is very favorable to Obama, and I do believe he and his crew are smart enough to defeat the right wing-generated and corporate media amplified hate and demonization. I would say 60% 300 vote Obama EV win, 25% Obama electoral landslide, 10% 2000 style nailbiter that Obama wins, and 5% McCain EV squeaker/supreme court selected win.a post for those of the sentient persuasion
posted by Michael Zilber at 1:34 PM
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